It’s not 1973 - but oil could turn ugly on Hamas attacks

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It’s not 1973 - but oil could turn ugly on Hamas attacks
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Crude prices are likely to rise after the surprise Hamas attack on Israel, but there’s still plenty of capacity to tap.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. On the eve of the 50th anniversary of the world’s first oil crisis, the parallels between October 2023 and October 1973 are easy to draw: A surprise attack on Israel and oil prices rising. But the resemblance ends there.

4) The fallout could yet have an impact on oil markets in 2023 and 2024. The most immediate impact could come if Israel concludes that Hamas acted on instructions of Tehran. In that scenario, oil prices could go much higher.In 2019, Iran demonstrated, via Yemeni proxies, that it’s able to knock down a significant chunk of Saudi oil production capacity. It could do the same as retaliation if it finds itself under Israel or American attack.

Mikhail Shvetz surveys the damage to cars gutted by fires set when a rocket from Gaza struck the parking lot of an apartment complex in Ashkelon, Israel.The White House is now likely to enforce the sanctions. That could be enough to push oil prices to $US100 a barrel, and potentially beyond.

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