Wall Street investors are gearing up for their version of Hell Week — a torrent of jobs data coming over the next few days could easily lead to volatile market swings.
The unflinching resilience of the US labor market is one of — if not the — greatest source of tension in today’s economy. Federal Reserve officials have said on numerous occasions that they believe elevated inflation rates will remain sticky until employment numbers, and the pace of wage increases, shift lower. That means the Fed’s already painful rate hikes are likely to continue until the job market simmers. But it’s still boiling.
“Activity has weakened in the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, but core areas are still showing resilience. We are in this in-between period where the impact of rates has not fully worked through the economy.” Hirt said he expects the unemployment rate will likely climb from its current 54-year low, albeit slowly and modestly, to around 4.5% to 5% by the end of this year.
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