Crime data analysis should play a much bigger role in policing and safety in South Africa.
Chart 1: South Africa’s national murder rate per 100,000 people. This trend is driven by large increases in specific provinces . The Eastern Cape has suffered high murder rates for years. The annualised projection for the province in 2022/23 is 75 murders per 100,000 – again making it the murder capital of South Africa.
It is broadly agreed that crime and violence have many social and other determinants, often beyond the police’s control. However, good policing can bring down murder and other notable crimes such as robbery. But declines in the SAPS budget mean that existing police resources must be used better. Neither government nor the SAPS has invested in understanding the high and rising murder rates. For 20 years, authorities have repeated theabout violence being linked to people known to each other. Rather than focusing on how to tackle the problem, this often seems intended to absolve government of responsibility.
There is also no clear indication that purposeful steps are being taken to strengthen crime intelligence or detective services. These two SAPS components are vital to addressing crime.
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