Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby tied himself in knots trying to deny any evidence of a “direct link” between Iran and Hamas. Biden aides seemingly also leaked intelligence showing key Iranian officials — they do not say whom — surprised at the operation.
When the National Security Agency or CIA cannot find any such link, too many American officials will conclude the action was rogue in its origin. President Donald Trump, for example, explained he would not retaliate against Iran for the downed drone. “I imagine someone made a mistake,” he said. “I think that it could have been somebody who was loose and stupid that did it.”
The second is that Iranian command and control operates differently than any other country. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a dictator, but not in the mold of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un or late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. He is a dictator by veto. Rather than give commands and expect them to be followed, he instead defines policy redlines and gives Iranian commanders freedom to do anything that he did not expressly forbid.
Previously, it was also easier to follow the money. In 1995, a Palestine Islamic Jihad terrorist killed Brandeis University junior Alisa Flatow in a suicide bombing of the bus on which she was riding. Her father Stephen sued the Islamic Republic of Iran and won his case. A key piece of evidence was a line item in the Iranian budget to support Palestinian resistance. Following its loss, the Iranian government responded not with reform, but rather by removing such line items from future budgets.
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