Israel's pursuit of total regime change in Iran is complicating President Donald Trump's goal of negotiating with any reformist insiders.
“Looking at Israeli messaging versus the U.S., paired with the division of labor, it is clear that Israel is taking the lead in facilitating regime change,” Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told thePresident Donald Trump listens as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during an arrival at his Mar-a-Lago club, Monday, Dec.
29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. He continued, “Israelis are engaging Iranians more directly, sending messages of solidarity while also dismantling the repression infrastructure.”is clear — the Islamic regime is beyond salvaging, and Iranians need to take to the streets to help oust their oppressors themselves. “I’m telling the Iranian people,” Netanyahu said last week at a press conference, “the moment you can come out for freedom is getting closer. We are standing beside you and helping you. But at the end of the day, it’s up to you.”and his closest allies at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, the Israeli military has continued systematically picking off the highest-ranking officials in Iran., remains at large. The Iranian government has acknowledged he was wounded early in the campaign, but no proof of life has been offered. Even the ayatollah’s first address to the people was read on state television by a newscaster. The U.S. and Israel agree that they’re “not going through this to end up with another Khamenei,” but the agreement seems to end there.Washington Examiner — citing the exiled royal’s ability to “form a government rooted in Iranian national interests vs Islamism, while also giving Jerusalem a formal regional partner at a time when anti-Israeli sentiment is rising.”as he seeks to marshal enough allies and resources to establish a transitional government if the regime falls. He has offered himself as a transitional leader to oversee a secular, democratic Iran and claims to have a popular mandate from his people. These claims are amplified by the Iranian diaspora living outside the Islamic Republic, most of whom come from families that fled the country due to their association with the shah. A member of the Iranian community flashes a victory sign from behind a poster of Iran’s exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi during a rally outside the Iranian Embassy in Bucharest, Romania, Thursday, March 5, 2026. The reality in Iran is more complicated. Pahlavi is practically the only individual being explicitly shouted out by protesters, but demands for the crown prince’s return are far from overwhelming. Trump has alluded to this possible dearth of popular support when asked about the possibility of backing Pahlavi to lead the country if the regime collapses.somebody from withinSayeh said that while Pahlavi “would align more naturally with Israel, given their shared history of confronting pan-Arabism and, more recently, Islamism,” the Jewish state is likely also looking for a fallback option. “This could involve empowering ethnically based separatist movements such as Kurdish or Baluch groups, similar to its support for Druze in Syria,” he told the. “Historically, backing one adversary against another has produced short-term gains but long-term instability, yet Israel may still view this as a viable pressure tactic.” Sayeh continued, “A hybrid approach is also possible, supporting a range of anti-regime actors from nationalists to separatists to maximize internal strain. Still, overt support for separatism risks alienating Iran’s pro-Israel population, which views territorial integrity as its red line.” Regardless of what route ends up being taken, the Israeli government remains dead-set on forcing the Iranian people onto the streets. The regime has taken every precaution to dissuade would-be rioters, establishingJerusalem, timid about the prospect of a land invasion, can only respond withPeople gather at a rally to support Iranian Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 9, 2026. “ assault has doubtless hurt their ability to defend the regime, but it is unclear if it has eliminated the personnel—or broken the morale—of those who would be called upon to crush the uprising that the United States and Israel hope will follow the end of the air campaign,” the Council on Foreign Affairs asserted in a Wednesday report. But the merciless campaign is creating headaches for Trump as the perennial deal-maker’s administration struggles to understand who is left to negotiate with.
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