The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria presents a major strategic challenge for Israel, despite initial signs that the change might be beneficial.
Suddenly, Israel has a Syria problem.For years, officials in Jerusalem had banked on a relatively predictable balance of power with the neighboring regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Despite Assad's enduring hostility toward the Jewish state and the inherent weakness of his regime, a tenuous status quo had been struck between the two countries, making it generally possible to anticipate how the Syria n dictator would behave.
This has served as a perverse source of comfort over the past 14 months, as Israel has found itself preoccupied with the threat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and more recently, that of Hezbollah in Lebanon.But no longer. The rapid December collapse of the Assad regime in the face of reinvigorated domestic opposition has demolished the old status quo in the Levant. In its place, the world has seen the rise of a motley coalition of Sunni extremist groups dominated by one-time al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its charismatic leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.At first blush, that new order might appear beneficial to Jerusalem. After all, the overthrow of Assad has helped to dislodge Iran's previously-robust presence on Israel's northern border, which had entailed dozens of military bases and thousands of deployed foreign fighters. Thousands of Iranian civilians have already fled from Syria, fearing life under Sunni control, while Iran has been forced to rely on Russia to ferry its military forces to safety. Significant, too, is the fact that the 'land bridge' between Tehran and Beirut—which the Iranian regime used for years to supply weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon—has now effectively been severed.Yet a closer examination suggests that Syria's transformation represents a profound strategic challenge for Israel—one that the Jewish state is now scrambling to addres
Syria Israel Assad Regime Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Iran
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