Bonds Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 10-Year. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to the upside for this key market rate.
Consider that the 10-year yield has been trending down for much of the past two months, closing at 4.29% on Monday – near the lowest level since late March. For some perspective, start with the history of the average fair-value estimate vs. the market yield. Using monthly data, the current average fair-value estimate is 3.34% for May, the first dip this year. Meanwhile, the market yield remains more than 100 basis points higher at 4.48% as of last month, although here too the market rate ticked lower for the first time in 2024.
A lesser spread implies the market rate will fall, the average model estimate will rise, or some combination of both. Short of a relatively dramatic run of reflation in the US economy and/or a strong acceleration in economic growth relative to recent history , the path ahead seems to favor a lower spread.
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