Coronavirus: Is R number balanced on knife edge?
It would be easy to say yes, but the reality is confusing and it is important to understand what is driving any changes in R.The most straightforward explanation is that the virus is genuinely spreading more. As the PHE report says:"We believe that this is probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings."
And when you get to low levels of infection, all the estimates become more uncertain and that too can make R appear higher. It is the job of Sage, the government's group of science advisors, led by chief science advisor Sir Patrick Vallance, to come to an overall view. Sir Patrick has consistently and publicly warned there is little room for manoeuvre in easing lockdown as R is on the cusp of one.The first point is the number of cases is vital too. A high R is more of a problem when there is a lot of virus around.The south-west has always had relatively few cases - currently 778 infections a day, according to PHE. However, Dr Birrell says the north-west - 4,170 infections a day - is"more worrying".
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