When will Midtown and Lower Manhattan fully win back office workers now laboring at home? Or is this the new normal? The answers have major implications for NYC revenues and budgets, employment, public transportation funding, real estate, housing and more.
“The ‘doom loop’ scenario is overblown,” Richard McGahey, an economist and author of Unequal Cities, said in an interview. He also addressed the issue in aHe noted that New York has faced tough economic challenges before and bounced back. Look no further than the 9/11 attacks. He said that Lower Manhattan has seen substantial residential growth in the last two decades, after being written off by some.
Already, though, an intertwined debate over crime, urban decay and homelessness has had political consequences, with Republicans in big blue New York and California both, helping to flip the House of Representatives in the GOP's favor. In both states, Republicans focused on crime and street homelessness, particularly in Democrat-controlled cities, including New York City and Los Angeles.
Since taking office in January, Mayor Eric Adams has launched a series of initiatives aimed at moving homeless people out of public spaces, including dismantling their encampments.
Unsheltered homelessness, even in places where it's decreased statistically, has in some cases just become more physically visible because there are now vacant storefronts. There are vacant seats on transit.But fairly or not, City Comptroller Brad Lander said, perceptions had the potential to drive the city’s economic outlook.
The subsequent impact on the city’s budget would be profound, they noted, given that “the share of real estate taxes in NYC’s budget was 53% in 2020, 24% of which comes from office and retail property taxes.”
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