Is Canadian inflation on a sustainable path to 2%? Essentials offer clues

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Is Canadian inflation on a sustainable path to 2%? Essentials offer clues
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As Canadian inflation slows, the cost of essentials, such as food and rent, offers pointers as to whether it will return sustainably to the Bank of Canada's 2% target, say economists, as those items are key drivers of inflation expectations.

Canada's consumer price index report for December, due on Tuesday, is expected to show headline inflation cooling to 6.3%, its lowest annual rate since last February, from 6.8% in November.

Price increases for food and rent, as well as those for gas, which have already slowed, are highly visible, so they tend to have a pronounced impact on inflation expectations. "One eye is on wage growth, which is strong but not too bad at the moment, but then this other idea on the price inflation for essentials that could keep wage demands high, as it affects inflation expectations."

Food prices rose 10.3% year-over-year in November and shelter was up 7.2%, while the December labor force survey showed growth in average hourly wages of 5.1%.

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