Is Beto O’Rourke underrated? NateSilver538 explores:
He also may have missed his moment, or he may not look the same to voters now that the sugar high of almost beating Cruz has worn off. The road trip and dentist stuff may not have mattered to voters, but it didn’t necessarily reflect great self-awareness or judgment.
In the Twitter polls, I gave readers four choices: that the candidate had a greater than 20 percent chance of winning, between a 10 percent and 20 percent chance, between a 5 percent and 10 percent chance, or under a 5 percent chance. To more precisely estimate the average reader’s probability, I treated having a 10-20 percent chance as equal to a 15 percent chance, and a 5-10 percent as equal to a 7.5 percent chance. The other two categories are more ambiguous — e.g.
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