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to around $100 a ton is indicative of a broader reshaping of China’s commodities markets that favors the new economy over the old.
Iron ore’s weakness comes amid tentative signs that the wider economy is beginning to heal. Factory activity snapped a five-month contraction in March, beating estimates and adding to modest signs of recovery. Property still makes up the bulk of steel demand. But Beijing has held off on delivering the degree of fiscal stimulus — principally infrastructure spending — that could fully offset the housing crash. Ballooning debt levels at local governments are one obstacle. Meanwhile, the usual lift to construction activity in the spring has also failed to properly materialize, creating uncertainty over when consumption might revive.
All to say, President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on property and his drive for “new productive forces” could well herald an era in which iron ore and steel play a lesser role to the metals set to benefit from the energy transition.“It’s understandable if the weakness lasts for a week or two,” said Cao Ying, chief ferrous metals analyst at SDIC Essence Futures Co. “Any longer than that and the market will start to adjust its expectations as it will look more like a structural shift.
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