Groups backed by Iran wield great power from Baghdad to Beirut. Yet the “axis of resistance” props up hardened regimes that control but cannot govern
last year noticed an odd diptych on the drive from the airport. Head north along Imam Khomeini avenue and one passed billboards to Qassem Suleimani, an Iranian general assassinated by America in January 2020. Yet just a kilometre farther on his gaunt visage gave way to a jowly image of Benjamin Franklin, one of America’s Founding Fathers.
This binary view of a proxy war has outlived its usefulness—because the Saudis lost. They failed to build a deep well of support in other Arab countries, settling for ineffective chequebook diplomacy with fickle politicians and warlords. Iran is undeniably the strongest foreign actor in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. The Saudis still fight a rearguard action in Yemen, but their six-year war against the Houthis, a Shia group, has served mostly to benefit Iran.
But Hizbullah has since mostly turned its guns on other Arabs. In 2008 its militants briefly took over west Beirut, a moment that stretched the definition of “resistance”. The Syrian civil war brought more contradictions. To support its allies, Mr Assad and Iran, Hizbullah had to fight Syrian rebels. This time it claimed to be resisting the, or Sunni extremists, and protecting Shia shrines in Damascus.
A decade and a half later, though, Mr Nasrallah has become what he once abhorred. He has made dozens of speeches since Lebanon’s plunge into crisis, many devoted to backing the existing order. Initially he endorsed anti-government demonstrations in 2019, but he quickly changed his mind. In his later assessment the protesters—hundreds of thousands, from all walks of life—had been infiltrated by a fifth column on the payroll of foreign embassies.
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