Experts from United Against Nuclear Iran weigh Iran's options in the wake of Israel's stunning move to eliminate the leader of Hezbollah, Iran's key anti-Israel proxy. Tehran's choices are all fraught with peril.
As the death of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah is confirmed, the immediate question is not whether Iran will respond, but how. Hezbollah is a creation of the Islamic Republic, built on decades of effort, and billions of dollars of support. Formed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 1982, Hezbollah remains the regime’s primary proxy.
The relationship between Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, was almost familial – akin to that of father and son. But Nasrallah’s recent missteps, including intelligence failures and the assassinations of senior commanders, had left Khamenei to manage the fallout. His death now compounds that. Iran’s leadership cannot simply sit back while Hezbollah endures these levels of humiliation and harm.
Which way will the ayatollah’s thumb point? The IRGC’s asymmetric doctrine and military infrastructure suggests that the likeliest scenario is a combination of the first two options: providing logistical support while destabilizing and causing chaos in the region and beyond.However, as Khamenei weighs his options, he does so against a background of economic crises and a deeply unhappy population.
combination of the domestic and international pressure that would undoubtedly come with a strategy of destabilization and chaos – particularly under a Donald Trump presidency – could cost the Ayatollah and his regime dearly. With Nasrallah already lost, no matter which path he chooses, Khamenei stands to lose even more.
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