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DUBAI - Iran fires the starting gun this week on an election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, whose death in a helicopter crash could complicate efforts by the authorities to manage a task of even greater consequence - the succession to the supreme leader.
Registration for candidates opens on Thursday, although that is only the beginning of a process that will see hopefuls vetted by the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog body that disqualifies candidates without always publicising the reason. That goal -- victory for a hardline president able to shape a smooth transition at the pinnacle of power when Khamenei eventually dies -- nevertheless presents a conundrum for the ruling clerics managing the vote next month.
Critics say the turnout also reflected discontent over economic hardship and social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the death of a young woman arrested by the morality police in 2022. Reformist former senior official Mohammad Ali Abtahi said the pro-reform camp would contest the election if its candidate was permitted to stand, although he added it was not clear how much political space reformists would be allowed.
"Even allowing a few known moderates to stand ... might not be enough to get people to turn out. Voters have been repeatedly misled by the idea that reform-minded candidates ... would produce real change," said Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew.
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