Tom Rogan is a foreign policy/national security writer for the Washington Examiner. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in War Studies from King's College London, a Master of Science in Middle East politics from SOAS, and a Graduate Diploma in Law from the University of Law, London.
U.S.-Iran tensions continue to escalate following Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel. That said, Iran will not fear the Pentagon's announcement on Sunday that a guided-missile submarine is moving toward its border. To fear that submarine, Iran must first believe the U.S. is seriously considering using it in combat.Too many have hyperventilated following the Pentagon's announcement. Claiming the submarine announcement was extremely rare, some journalists ignored the fact that the U.S.
Consider Iran's escalating attacks on U.S. military forces. On Monday, the Pentagon said that there had been 38 separate attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria over the weekend. Forty-six U.S. personnel were lightly to moderately wounded in those attacks by Iranian proxies and deniable fronts for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These attacks clearly underline Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's desire to make the U.S. pay for its support for Israel.
We know this sweet spot exists in Iran's strategic considerations. If not, Khamenei would already have directed Hezbollah to open a scaled rather than tentative second front against Israel. He might also have already employed Iran's ballistic missile forces against Israel. Still, it's not surprising that Khamenei feels more American blood can forge the way to the eventual sweet spot. Biden has fostered Iran's desire to escalate by launching only highly limited retaliatory strikes against the IRGC over the past few weeks. Those retaliatory strikes were visibly designed to avoid Iranian casualties. Khamenei and his IRGC operational commander for these activities, Quds Force leader Gen.
In sum, both the U.S. and Iran have an interest in avoiding a descent into full-scale conflict. But it's going to take more than submarine tweets to deter Iran from pushing the line.
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