Business Insider tells the global tech, finance, stock market, media, economy, lifestyle, real estate, AI and innovative stories you want to know.
Investors are bracing for the weekend attacks on Iran to ripple through markets. Front and center is the oil market, and the looming threat to energy flows.The Strait of Hormuz is among the world's most important global shipping lanes, with 13 million barrels of crude oil per day flowing through the waterway in 2025, about 20% to 30% of the world's supply.
Reports on Saturday indicated that Iran was moving to close the strait. That represents a worst-case scenario for markets that could send crude prices sharply higher when trading resumes on Sunday evening.Here's what to watch as investors react to the strikes on Iran."Oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday. As things stand right now, we think Brent could hit $100/b," Barclays analysts. "The potential effect on oil markets is hard to overstate."The bank said investors should expect oil prices to test the $100 per barrel level on Monday, which would represent a 37% spike from Friday's close of $67.02.Markets were already on edge over a potential "oil shock" this year after the attack on Venezuela and amid simmering tensions with Iran. Crude prices have crept up steadily in 2026 after tumbling last year. Brent, the international benchmark, is up 20% year-to-date.A rapid rise in energy prices would also ratchet up inflation expectations, potentially weighing on business activity and consumer spending."A positive supply shock to oil prices would materially impact inflation expectations and inflation risks," Deutsche Bank wrote in a recent note before this weekend's attack, adding that an oil shock is a key risk to their economic outlook for 2026.Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that a serious conflict with Iran is a major economic headwind that would see the risk of a recession "climb sharply." Amid the strikes on Iran last year, Goldman said that its worst-case scenario saw Brent oil prices peak at $110 per barrel if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for a long period.Prior conflicts that have threatened oil supplies have led to near-term rallies in shares of energy producers, while also boosting defense stocks.The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF is already up 14% in 2026, surging in the immediate aftermath of the Venezuela attack and again this month as the US moved closer to war with Iran. Meanwhile, the iShares S&P Global Energy ETF has marched steadily higher all year, rising 24% as markets have mulled disruptions to global supplies from various conflicts.Geopolitical conflict has been part of gold's bull case for the last year amid its blistering rally to over $5,000 an ounce, and the confrontation with Iran could be a fresh catalyst for further gains. Meanwhile, a general risk-off shift could send Treasurys higher, pushing down yields.And while stocks could tumble as investors digest the news, a prolonged negative reaction isn't guaranteed. Geopolitical events are often flash-in-the-pan type events for equities, and it's possible markets can rally even as armed conflict continues."We wouldn't be surprised if any rally in the S&P 500 Energy sector on Monday morning fades by the afternoon. We wouldn't be surprised if any selloff in the S&P 500 on Monday morning turns into a rally," market veteran Ed Yardeni said on Saturday.Still, Barclays analysts warned against buying any dip on Monday. Even though markets barely reacted to the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities in 2025, the bank's analysts warned investors not to be overconfident that the conflict will be a contained, short-lived event."A war that lasts for more than a few days — and surprises investors when it does — should draw a more pronounced negative reaction. We would recommend not buying any immediate dip — the risk-reward doesn't seem compelling," the analyst wrote. "If equities pull back enough , there is likely to come a time to buy. But not yet."
Oil Prices Gold Stock Market Inflation
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Vance rules out long Middle East war as US-Iran talks continue — reportUS Vice President told media there is “no chance” of a prolonged war, stressing past operations were limited, and that diplomacy remains the preferred option.
Read more »
US military stages largest Middle East buildup since Iraq war amid heightened tensions with IranThe U.S. military is amassing its largest concentration of forces in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq as tensions with Iran remain heightened.
Read more »
U.S. Military Builds Up Forces in Middle East Amid Iran TensionsThe U.S. is deploying a large military presence in the Middle East, including F-22 fighter jets and the USS Ford aircraft carrier, as tensions with Iran remain high. This buildup, the largest since the 2003 Iraq invasion, is strategically positioned near Iran and its proxies, coinciding with diplomatic efforts over Tehran's nuclear program.
Read more »
U.S. Military Builds Up Forces in Middle East Amidst Rising Tensions with IranThe United States is deploying significant military assets in the Middle East, including F-22 fighter jets and the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, amid heightened tensions with Iran and ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding Tehran's nuclear program.
Read more »
Vance says 'no chance' US will get into prolonged Middle East war amid Iran tensionsFox News Channel offers its audiences in-depth news reporting, along with opinion and analysis encompassing the principles of free people, free markets and diversity of thought, as an alternative to the left-of-center offerings of the news marketplace.
Read more »
Attack on Iran disrupts Middle East air travelThe U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran has disrupted air travel across the Middle East and beyond. On Saturday, the United Arab Emirates and Israel close their airspace. Qatar Airways says it cancels flights to and from Doha because of Qatari airspace closure. Airlines are rerouting planes that are already heading to Israel.
Read more »