Nature research paper: Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol
advects these positions for 24 h, using ERA5 winds. Note that ERA5 data come at 3-h intervals and 0.25resolution, but that the HYSPLIT model interpolates for a more exact estimate. Settings of 20 m initial height and the 'input model data' mode for the vertical motion method are used. The HYSPLIT functionality for trajectories, rather than that for dispersion, is used here, so as to find the advected emission location.
Then, the counterfactual constructed by averaging the areas to either side may be an overestimate for a convex function in the across-track direction. This explains the unphysicaldecrease in tracks, for example, in the Caribbean. Over large enough areas, backgrounds should, on average, be neither convex nor concave, so when averaging over the entire observation region, these effects should be negligible.
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