The outlook for the global economy, and in turn financial markets, may not be nearly as bleak as the yield curve suggests.
Predicting a recession is a notoriously difficult undertaking — both for investors and financial experts.
The yield curve is clearly an important indicator to look at, though it does not pinpoint the precise timing of a recession. The yield curve inversion between July 2000 and January 2001, for example, was followed by a U.S. recession between March and November 2001. The yield curve inverted again in July 2006 to May 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis in the autumn of 2008.
So where does this leave the global economy? It is in the late phase of an extended economic cycle, and global growth should reaccelerate in the second half of 2019, providing late-cycle opportunities for investors.
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