Investors who once overwhelmingly expected President Donald Trump to be reelected have increasingly resigned themselves to the prospect of a Joe Biden presidency.
As the presumptive Democratic nominee builds a formidable lead in polls and predictive markets, a new survey released on Wednesday by UBS revealed that 55% of wealthy investors and business owners expect the former vice president to prevail in November.
“The surge in coronavirus infections in battleground states has placed him at a severe disadvantage as he prepares for his party’s national convention,” according to Solita Marcelli, UBS’ chief investment officer for the Americas. However, she cautioned against going “all in” on a pro-Biden investment strategy.
The shifts detected by UBS and Deutsche punctuate the rough shoals the president has hit since March, as a confluence of negative trends — primarily the COVID-19 crisis and protests against racial injustice — took him from overwhelming favorite to underdog. Currently, markets view the prospects of a Biden win with a studied degree of equanimity, and observers have suggested investors can live with him given his comparatively moderate policy stances.
By contrast, Biden “is more inclined to raise corporate tax rates, while prioritizing broad-based spending initiatives around the expansion of healthcare coverage, boosting minimum wages, and providing more federal support for housing and education,” she added.
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