Inflation is painfully high, but some relief may be coming

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Inflation is painfully high, but some relief may be coming
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Inflation is painfully high, but this hopefully is close to as bad as it gets.

Consumer prices rose 6.8% for the 12 months ending in November, a 39-year high. Many economists expect inflation to remain near this level a few more months but to then moderate through 2022 for a variety of reasons. And they don't see a repeat of the 1970s or early 1980s, when inflation ran above 10% for frighteningly long stretches.

“This is not going to be an easy fix,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Just because inflation will eventually moderate doesn’t mean that prices are going to go down. They’re up. We’re just lowering the rate of change, not the level of prices.” Both the bond buying and low rates are intended to spur borrowing, which gets people and companies to buy more things. That can help drive inflation higher, as demand outstrips supply.

“That should provide some relief for consumers when they go to fill up their tanks. Now how much relief? That’s really hard to tell,” said Andrew Gross, spokesman for AAA. “It’s really hard to gauge what sort of world events are happening. And it really doesn’t take much to spike oil prices.” The average cost to heat a home this winter will be an estimated $972, according to Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. That’s less than the $1,056 his group was projecting in October, but still higher than the $888 consumers paid to heat their homes last year.

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