First came the news that India had counted 78,000 new cases of covid-19 in one day. Then a record-breaking decline in economic output was announced
landed like fists in a one-two punch. First came the news that India had counted 78,000 new cases of covid-19 on August 30th alone—more than any other country has tallied in a single day since the pandemic began. The next day came the bill for the two-month lockdown that the government imposed in late March at only four hours’ notice. The National Statistical Office said that India’s output between April and June was 23.9% lower than in the same period the year before.
In hindsight, India’s government may have locked down too soon. The country had detected barely 600 cases of covid-19 by March. The ban on commercial activity and movement outside of the home was nearly total for two months. Test-and-trace programmes worked in some areas, notably the southern state of Kerala, but nationwide they have fallen far short of the standards set by some East Asian countries.
The number of Indians dying of the virus appears to be lower than might be expected, given the number of infections. The country’s 3.8m detected cases have led to just 67,000 known deaths. That is a low rate by global standards, although many covid-related deaths are thought to be going unrecorded around the world, making comparisons unreliable. A paper by Minu Philip, Debraj Ray and S.
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