India's economic growth likely picked up in the January-March quarter from the previous three months, but economists have grown more pessimistic about this quarter after a harsh second wave of COVID-19 hit the country last month.
The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 29 economists showed gross domestic product in Asia's third-largest economy grew 1.0% in the March quarter from a year earlier, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter when India began pulling out of a steep pandemic-induced recession in earlier six months.But the second wave of infections and deaths across the world's second-hardest hit country has caused forecasters to trim their projections for the coming months.
But Arun Singh, global chief economist at Dun & Bradstreet, said the downside risks to growth were intensifying as the second wave makes the return to pre-pandemic growth rates difficult. The central bank, which has kept monetary policy loose while boosting liquidity to the economy, said on Thursday that growth prospects will depend on how fast India can arrest infections.Modi has faced criticism for the slow pace of his four-month-old vaccination campaign, which has inoculated fewer than 4% of India's 1.38 billion people. Analysts warn the slow rollout could pose medium-term risks to growth, especially if the country were to experience a third wave of COVID-19.
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