The streets and workplaces that 1.3bn Indians are beginning to return to will be more virus-infested than when the lockdown started
two months under one of the world’s most stringent covid-19 lockdowns, India faces a double dilemma. The stay-at-home rules did indeed bend the virus’s growth curve. This means that, so far, fewer Indians are known to have died of the disease than Swedes, even though India has 134 times more people. Yet India’s lockdown failed to bend it far enough. “We put more effort into containing the people than containing the virus,” as one epidemiologist puts it.
Goldman Sachs, a bank, expects the economy to contract by 45% this quarter at an annualised rate, and by 5% over the full year, assuming a big bounce in the second half. The National Council of Applied Economic Research, a think-tank in Delhi, predicts a contraction of 12.5% this fiscal year unless there is a huge stimulus.
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