OPINION: In Sudan, change is at the mercy of the military's interests
In the past 10 years or so Africa witnessed the fall of long-term regimes - in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso and, Sudan. When the establishment retains some leverage over reformers change can be slow, superficial and short-lived. Sudan appears to be a textbook case.
What could explain the breakdown in proceedings? I would argue that the military sanctioned al-Bashir’s ouster to preserve itself and its interests. This was the case in Algeria, Zimbabwe and Egypt. The countries remained in the grip of an autocratic old guard. Sudan is an indispensable contributor of troops to the Saudi-led “Operation Decisive Storm” in Yemen. Because of their military coalition, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and their allies would encourage the Sudanese generals not to cede ground to the civilian protest movement.
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