China has interests in other countries, but America is an obsession
time with Chinese scholars and officials who study America, and comparisons will at some point be drawn between China’s relations with America and a bad marriage. It is a revealing analogy. China has interests in other continents, but America is an obsession. Marriage metaphors capture the lingering admiration mixed with envy and resentment that China’s elite harbours for its global rival. In the Trump era, however, a dangerous new emotion is increasingly surfacing: contempt.
That need to maintain economic growth is a reason for China to fear a trade war with Mr Trump. But it is also a reason for indignation at what is called an American policy of containment. Chinese sources describe a suffocating sense that—just as moderate prosperity comes within reach—a declining America now questions China’s right to achieve that wealth, whether by building strong armed forces or developing advanced technology.
Other official voices argue that China has not changed its behaviour; it has merely grown larger and more successful. If China is such an abuser of the international order, they ask, why have America and Europe never complained before? In part, Chinese puzzlement is disingenuous. China has repeatedly promised to open markets and grant more equal treatment to foreign companies. After the 20th year of broken promises, patience vanishes. In part, though, those Chinese sources have a point.
The most candid voices admit that China got Mr Trump wrong, at first thinking him a pragmatic New York businessman in the mould of others they have known. China also underestimated the durability of his support. Mr Trump’s escalation of the trade fight shocked Chinese leaders, who assured visiting Western leaders in spring 2018 that his bluster was theatre, and that both sides had too much to lose for a real trade war to start.
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