About two-thirds of Californians approve of Gov. Gavin Newsom's handling of the pandemic — among his critics’ chief complaints. That's up from roughly half in January, at the height of the crisis. See what other key factors are shaping the recall race:
It’s been almost two decades since Californians ousted then-Gov. Gray Davis in a historic recall election. Critics of current Gov. Gavin NewsomWhile the rules of the recall have stayed the same, much about the state has changed sinceCalifornia’s population today is more diverse and educated. Those shifts have helped power a political swing toward the Democratic Party and could shield Newsom from the forces that doomed Davis.
These are among the key factors set to shape the race, according to data analysis by The Times and interviews with experts on Golden State politics.That shift allowed Newsom to take office in a stronger position than Davis. In 2002, a year before the last recall, Davis narrowly won reelection with just 47% of the vote. Newsom enjoyed a landslide victory in his 2018 gubernatorial campaign, receiving 62% support.
When comparing how the major party candidates split the vote in those two elections, the trend is clear. Only 11 of the state’s 58 counties — all in less-populated and more rural areas — dropped in Democratic support. Most other places saw their electorates shift to the left.In the 2002 race, a beleaguered Davis faced multiple opponents, likely reducing his vote share. In 2018, Newsom faced only one opponent, Republican John Cox, perhaps boosting his share.
Still, the change is undeniable. Take Los Angeles County, home to a quarter of the state's population, for example. Support for the Democratic candidate in those two races increased 10 percentage points from Davis to Newsom.
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