China's liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is forecast to recover in 2023 as the country emerges from COVID-19 controls to become the bright spot in Asia's consumption for the super-chilled fuel.
China's demand is set to rebound to between 70 million and 72 million tonnes in 2023, 9% to 14% higher than in 2022, say analysts at Rystad Energy, Wood Mackenzie and ICIS.
But imports to China, which has the world's second-largest economy, would likely fall short of record 2021 levels, because prices would stay high and lingering effects of the pandemic would limit appetite, they added. Those high prices would continue to suppress demand from the Chinese industrial and power sectors, both highly sensitive to energy costs, said Wei Xiong, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
"Growth momentum across sectors may only be restored after the high infections subside and when employees are back to work," she said. "It will be a gradual process and may take a few months to restore."for the first time in two decades, because of weak demand from industries disrupted by pandemic controls.Gas prices spiked last year after Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, cut supplies to Europe.
In response to high LNG prices, Japan and South Korea aim to increase nuclear power's contribution to their energy supply, leading analysts to cut estimates of 2023 LNG demand from those countries.
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