The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that first quarter global growth slightly outpaced projections in its April forecasts, but data since then has shown a mixed picture, with 'pockets of resilience' alongside signs of slowing momentum.
A man walks past a model of G20 logo outside the finance ministry in New Delhi, India, March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis
The IMF did not indicate any changes to its April 2023 global GDP growth forecast of 2.8% - down from 3.4% in 2022 - but said that risks were "mostly" tilted to the downside. These include the potential for Russia's war in Ukraine to intensify, stubborn inflation and more financial sector stress that could disrupt markets.
"However, services inflation - which is now the major driver of core inflation - is expected to take longer to decline," the IMF said. But the IMF said policymakers will need to be vigilant for signs of financial sector stress, especially those brought about by interest rate risk and property sector stresses, and may need to deploy financial policy tools to contain them. It called for "granular stress tests" for financial firms.
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