Penn State's offense is cooking to open the year, and they tend not to waste time scoring either. Look for Illinois to fall behind early in this one.
Penn State's offense is cooking to open the year, and they tend not to waste time scoring either. Look for Illinois to fall behind early in this one. The Illinois Fighting Illini have benefited from opponents’ mistakes to reach a 4-0 mark.
Both Kansas and Nebraska gift-wrapped victories for the Illini. The Penn State Nittany Lions will not be so generous, and that will be most obvious early. My Illinois vs. Penn State predictions will focus on a quick lead coming for the Nittany Lions, with these James Franklin is on his sixth offensive coordinator in Happy Valley. Of the previous five, Franklin got out of the way only once, when Joe Moorhead enjoyed rather free rein.Sixty-eight of Penn State’s 124 points have come before halftime, most notably scoring 20 of its 34 points in the rout at West Virginia to open the season. On 17 first-half possessions, Drew Allar & Co. have scored nine touchdowns and kicked two field goals, the failures coming via two turnovers and four punts. Perhaps most impressively, Penn State has scored in the final minute of each half, including a three-play, 73-yard touchdown drive to reach the end zone with six seconds left before the break against the Mountaineers. No, none of those defenses — West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State — are as good as that of the, but the Nittany Lions can have justifiable faith in Kotelnicki’s game script and Allar’s early execution of it. Adding in a possible last-second score only emboldens this first-half faith. The question would then be if the Illini can keep up. Much of Illinois’s success this season can be tied to opponent mistakes, particularly Jalon Daniels throwing three interceptions in early September. Remove those and the Illini’s turnover margin falls to plus-four, a margin entirely contained in a rout of FCS-level Eastern Illinois. Allar has thrown just one interception this season, and even in his younger seasons, he was always careful with the ball. Over his career, Allar has thrown one interception for every 349 attempts. Without those gifts, Illinois will have a tough time slowing Penn State. Trusting Kotelnicki to continue putting up points in the first half removes any worries of a backdoor cover from the Illini, certainly a possibility with a three-score spread in a conference game.First-half bets are ineligible for same-game parlays, forcing the SGP to worry about a backdoor cover, but some faith in Penn State’s defensive line should lessen that worry. The Nittany Lions have bothered opposing passers on more than 50% of snaps. Some of that, obviously, is tied to the inferior opposing offensive lines, but a pressure rate that high exceeds any talent edge. Penn State has a strong front, and once the Nittany Lions’ offense has built a modest lead, the defensive line will be able to dial into its pass rush against the Illini. Knowing Illinois is going to need to pass will further help the defense and should compromise any Illini comeback hopes. BetMGM also is not offering Nicholas Singleton in the anytime touchdown market as of Thursday evening, which is strange given he has four touchdowns this season. But his running mate, Kaytron Allen, can not be dismissed entirely in these considerations.Penn State opened as only a 16-point favorite in Sunday’s earliest lines and was nearly immediately bet up to -17.5, where this line stuck until some books waffled to -18 in the midweek. The first total to hit the market was a low number of 45.5, quickly jumping to 47.5 and then not moving all week. While 48 is a key number, there may be a valid thought to finding an Under ticket on this game mostly because Illinois already struggles to convert quality possessions into points , something which Penn State’s defense also excels at (2.39 points allowed per quality drive, No. 25 in the country,James Franklin has long been known to score late in games to cover a spread no matter how hefty the line may be. That was emphasized last week when the Nittany Lions scored with only 1:25 left to cover as a 49-point favorite in a 56-0 victory. Find more : Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Sep 26, 2024Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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