Republicans are unlikely to turn on Pres. Trump. But if they do, it’ll happen all at once. FiveThirtyEight explains:
to understanding major political transformations. He argues that political regimes can persist despite being unpopular, which is why a government overthrow, when it does come, can often seem so sudden., who protested being mistreated by government officials by setting himself on fire. His death triggered a series of events, and a month later, the long-unpopular authoritarian Tunisian president fled the country after more than 23 years in power.
Kuran argues in his book that protests need a critical mass of supporters in order to force change. The logic is that there’s safety in numbers, so if multiple citizens rise up in protest of a regime, it signals that it’s OK to protest — which can cause decades-old regimes to collapse all at once.
Who goes first matters, too, because if we’re talking about a monumental sea change, it isn’t moderate Republicans like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine or Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah who will lead the GOPRather, it’s rank-and-file Republican senators up for reelection in solidly red states, like Bill Cassidy from Louisiana or Jim Inhofe from Oklahoma, whom you should watch. If they waver, that will signal that Trump’s days are numbered.
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