Late Tuesday, Ian underwent what meteorologists call an eyewall replacement cycle, where the spiraling storm center contracts under intense pressure until it can no longer take the burden and collapses.
As Ian channeled the surface heat of the ocean into energy, there was just more energy beneath it.
“When it came off of Cuba and got that perfect eyewall and it looked like Katrina, I knew it would be a classic Category 4 or 5 storm,” Weber said. Ian had a buffet of warm water leading it to Florida, no biting wind shear to tear it apart, steering winds tugged at it every so lightly, nudging it along at slow 9 to 10 mph and helping vent it like a flue in a chimney, adding to its power.
An average hurricane moves at about 12 to 14 mph, said meteorologist Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground and a writer for Yale Climate Connections.Masters said because Ian and Charley madeTen hours before landfall, Ian’s area of hurricane-force winds was 2.9 times larger than Charley. Jonathan Erdman, a meteorologist with The Weather Company, said Charley’s tropical storm-force wind field was about 125 nautical miles, whereas Ian’s was 290.
Masters said he was hoping Ian might mimic 2016’s Hurricane Matthew, which underwent an eyewall replacement cycle when it was a Category 4 colossus forecast to buzzsaw up Florida’s east coast. The cycle allowed dry air into the storm and may have helped wobble it away from the coast.“Matthew never recovered from its eyewall replacement cycle. Ian was able to recover and come ashore as a high-end Cat 4,” Masters said.
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