While nothing is certain, scientists have a lot of evidence on which to build some realistic expectations about how the pandemic will progress over the next year or so. Covid19 pandemic
Current evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 – the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 – is also here to stay, a conclusion reached some months ago by many scientists working on the virus. Neither vaccines nor natural infection will stop the virus from spreading.
The other human coronaviruses cause repeat infections on average every three to six years. If SARS-CoV-2 ends up behaving the same way, this suggests that in the UK between one-sixth and one-third of people – or between 11 and 22 million – could get infected with it every year on average, or 30 000 to 60 000 a day. But that is not as scary as it sounds.Yes, emerging research does suggest that immune protection against developing symptomatic Covid-19 appears to wane.
Among those with prior immunity, it’s been shown that Covid-19 tends to be less severe. And as more people’s immunity is boosted over time by natural reinfections or booster immunisations, we can expect an increasing proportion of new infections to be asymptomatic or at worst cause mild illness. The virus will remain with us, but the disease will become part of our history.
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