It risks a new arms race, not only against Russia but also against China
Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile and its squat naval cousin, Trident, stand sentinel near Omaha, outside the headquarters of America’s Strategic Command, which is in charge of America’s fearsome nuclear arsenal. Inside,’s personnel say they have been at “battle stations” since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February,for any sign that Vladimir Putin might act on his threats to use nukes.
Admiral Richard last year sounded the alarm that China was staging a “strategic breakout”. This month he warned that America was losing the military contest: “As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking.” President Joe Biden says America faces a “decisive decade” in which to shape the global order. In a flurry of national-security policy documents this autumn his administration classifies Russia as the “acute” threat and China as “the “pacing challenge”.
From 60,000-odd warheads in the mid-1980s, their stockpiles shrank thanks to arms-control deals and the end of the cold war. Newlimits their “strategic” nukes, eg, intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 5,500km or more. Each can deploy 700 launch platforms and 1,550 warheads. Admiral Richard argues that, with such “breathtaking” expansion, China is seeking to “confront and coerce other nuclear-capable peers”. But James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank, questions whether China can produce fissile material as fast as the Pentagon forecasts. He argues that China’s behaviour may be caused by fear that its modest arsenal is vulnerable to America’s more capable spy satellites and missiles.
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