OPINION: How US conflict with Iran could be worse than the Iraq War
Judging from appearances, the United States and Iran are worryingly close to conflict. This weekend, only days after the United States dispatched warships and bombers to the Middle East to deter what it deemed Iranian threats, two Saudi oil tankers and a Norwegian ship were damaged in apparent acts of sabotage in the Persian Gulf.
Bolton's actions at the time earned him a reputation as reckless. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif appeared to allude to him on Tuesday, telling reporters that "extremist individuals in the U.S. administration" were falsely trying to blame Iran for the incidents in the Persian Gulf. One estimate from 2005 suggested that the Iraqi army had fewer than 450 000 personnel when the invasion began. Recent estimates suggest that Iran has 523 000 active military personnel, as well as 250 000 reserve personnel.
In terms of conventional military strength, Iran is far weaker than the United States. But the country has long pursued asymmetric strategies that could allow it to inflict serious damage on US interests in the region. Iran's navy has a real advantage against the United States, too. It doesn't need big ships or firepower to block off the Strait of Hormuz, for example, but could use mines or submarines to force a halt in trade.
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