Ukraine is not the only plucky democracy menaced by a big despotic neighbour that denies its right to self-rule. Taiwan needs to make itself indigestible, like a porcupine
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskTwo obstacles prevent the mainland from forcing “reunification” with Taiwan, which it deems part of Chinese territory, even though the island has had a separate government since 1949. One is the 180km-wide strait of Taiwan. The other is America’s military might. But China is fast building the wherewithal to overcome both. Some American commanders think China might attack before the end of the decade.
. The most important lesson is that the threat is real, and it is better to prepare now than to have to improvise in the heat of battle. Ukraine has shown how a stout fighting spirit, brave leadership, a resilient population—and Western arms—can keep at bay a bigger enemy. The better Taiwan prepares, the less likely China is to risk an invasion.
Luckily Taiwan already has a sound military doctrine to build on, the “Overall Defence Concept”, issued in 2017 but not fully embraced by the top brass. It is a “porcupine” strategy, based on ubiquitous mobile and concealable defensive weapons, especially missiles for use against ships and planes. This would mean giving up at least some of the expensive jets, ships and submarines Taiwan is currently seeking—but many of those are likely to be blown up when the shooting begins anyway.
America can ease the transition. In return for military reform, it should provide more support. This should include upgrading political and military contacts, selling or giving more weapons, providing overt training and hosting joint exercises. Taiwan has pitifully little experience of operating with friendly forces. America should draw up and rehearse detailed plans—not least with Japan and other allies—to respond to a range of crises, from a naval blockade of Taiwan to an invasion.
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