Russian attempts to use the Arctic as a military resource for the war are starting to be diminished by more effective western pushback.
Things are not exactly going to plan for Moscow in the Arctic – an area that is a strategic military region for Russia and has significant economic potential that could help Russia in propping up its war economy. Yet, a combination of Ukrainian military capabilities, western pushback and the pressure of international sanctions have put a dent into Russia n hopes to use the Arctic to its advantage in the war against Ukraine.
Yet, at the end of July 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked the Olenya airbase south of Murmansk. This was believed to be in retaliation for bombers based there being involved in the strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. With more long-range Ukrainian drones, the apparent advantage of Russia’s Arctic bases, if not gone, has at least been significantly diminished.
Within weeks of Finland joining Nato, the alliance held manoeuvres in the Arctic signalling its commitment to Article 5 . A year later, after Sweden had joined the alliance as well, Exercise Steadfast Defender – the largest military manoeuvres since the end of the cold war – began in northern Norway. This was another signal to Russia that the Arctic was back on the western geopolitical radar.
Another important dimension to Russian calculations in the Arctic is that investment was never just a military endeavour. Moscow has poured resources into the development of economic infrastructure, particularly to enable year-long shipping from Asia to Europe using routes through the Arctic, thus providing the Kremlin with additional leverage and potential revenue.
But this economic advantage is less than meets the eye. For example, even where Russia may have reaped financial benefits from Arctic resources – such as with its flagship LNG 2 project, opened by Vladimir Putin in July 2023 – the west has found ways to foil Russian efforts.
Arctic Council Give Me Perspective NATO Russia Ukraine Invasion 2022
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