November 3 doesn’t necessarily mark the end of the campaign, but the beginning of a new phase
Photo-Illustration: Megan Paetzhold. Photos: Getty Images Tad Devine was the top strategist on Al Gore’s 2000 campaign for president and the Florida recount that followed it. To the battle-scarred veteran of dozens of political contests across the globe, however, the election he’s worked on that is most similar to the 2020 presidential campaign was one in Honduras in 2005. Throughout that race, he was concerned that his candidate would be denied office, even if he won.
Campaigns have always prepared for legal issues. Ben Ginsberg, a veteran Republican election lawyer, told Intelligencer, “In normal times, campaigns approach Election Day and what comes after in terms of preparing for recounts and contests in terms of state law and federal overlay. They’ll still have to do that in 2020, but the reality is 2020 is going to be completely different because of the onslaught of absentee ballots, which stands to throw off the timing of election results.
Miles Taylor, the former chief of staff of the Department of Homeland Security who has become a vocal Trump opponent, warned Intelligencer that Trump has “no restraint whatsoever. He will not, mark my words, be able to resist the temptation to call states in his favor before they’ve been called … He will pull all out all the stops to get popular support and influence the outcome.”
Brooks said that “during our exercises, both campaigns tried to bring supporters in the streets.” However, Brooks’s biggest takeaway was that “a lot of people playing the Biden campaign and Democratic elected officials tended to approach [the scenarios] in legalistic ways and participants playing the Trump team, most of whom are experienced Republican consultants and activists, routinely were ruthless from the first moment.
But the real-world versions of these scenarios, in the event of a close election and suspense over the count of absentee ballots, have the potential to set off an escalating constitutional crisis. That’s in part because of the fixed timeline for the presidential election to be resolved. By statute, electors have to assemble in their individual states on December 14 to cast their ballots and they have to be formally counted in a joint session of Congress on January 6.
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