Based on debit- and credit-card transactions, household spending appears to have recovered rapidly from the April drop
meeting of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, eight of the committee’s nine members voted to expand quantitative easing by £100bn to provide more support for the economic recovery while one, the bank’s chief economist Andy Haldane, voted against. In a speech on June 30th Mr Haldane set out his reasoning. It makes for cheery reading at a time when most British economy-watchers are still stressing the downside risks to output and inflation.
Many analysts are unconvinced. Unemployment looks likely to rise and precautionary savings may remain high. Data on card payments may well be flattered by a shift away from cash and, even if the picture is broadly correct, making up the final lost 10% ofwill prove tricky if people continue to travel less and do not pack into restaurants and pubs. Samuel Tombs, of Pantheon Macroeconomics, spoke for many who prefer to rely on proven data sources when he tweeted his response .
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