How RFK Jr.'s exit would help Trump, according to the polls

Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.

The assassination attempt on Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s departure from the race, Vice President Kamala Harris’ jump to the top of her ticket, two vice-presidential picks and two conventions have all shaken up the election in the last six weeks. Now, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s possible exit could be the next big event. His own running mate is talking about weighing whether to drop out, and now his campaign is preparing a big speech on Friday.

And when third-party candidates were included, Trump’s lead grew to 3 points, 40% to 37%, with Kennedy getting 10%, Jill Stein 3%, Chase Olive 2% and Cornel West 1%. In that six-way ballot, Trump kept 87% of the voters who backed him in the head-to-head contest, while 10% of his voters went to Kennedy, 1% went to Stein and 1% went to West. By contrast, Biden kept 85% of his two-way support, while 6% went to Kennedy, 3% to Stein, 2% to Oliver and 1% to West.

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