It’s unlikely that Pres. Trump or Joe Biden’s candidacy will make up all the difference in these key races—but for some down-ballot candidates, it might not hurt to grab hold of their presidential candidate’s coattails. More, via FiveThirtyEight:
In 2018, President Trump boosted Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s bid. But what effect will Trump have in 2020 when he’s actually on the ballot?Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature.
Political science has long tried to measure just how big of an effect this is, and most research does suggest that down-ballot candidates gain at least a few votes thanks to the performance of the candidate at the top of the ticket, but estimates vary as to the actual size of the coattail effect. For instance, in House races, where we have the most data, some studies have found anywhere from a 0.2-point to 0.
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