'I think Dobbs effectively coalesced this anti-extremist majority around issues that weren’t quite breaking through into the public consciousness,' explains tbonier
I recently spoke with Bonier about his initial impressions of the midterm results, what impact he believes theIt’s been several days since Election Day, and more of the returns have come in. What is your initial takeaway from the results we’ve seen?decision that was initially evident in Kansas, where the pro-choice vote won by about 18 points. Then what we saw in the data was this massive gender gap of women registering to vote.
I think what happened was, No. 1, there was a flood of the lower-quality Republican-leaning or explicitly Republican surveys that was really drowning out the much more limited and sporadic universe of quality polling. There was at some level an interpretation bias, where the media in general — you saw this even among Democratic operatives — was perhaps putting too much emphasis on and giving too much credibility to these Republican polls.
The consistent pattern is that turnout is low during midterm elections, particularly among certain voting groups like young people. What can we conclude about the turnout this year? I do think it’s safe to say — given the result and what we saw in the early vote and the voter-registration data and in the special elections and the Kansas election, where we do have the vote history — that young voters were highly engaged in this election. I don’t know that we’ll see them reaching 2018 levels of turnout because it’s important to keep in mind that 2018 was really the inverse of this election. Harvard’s polling director, John Della Volpe, I have to credit for this.
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