How might the Tesla-fication of Moderna unfold?

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How might the Tesla-fication of Moderna unfold?
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Moderna’s valuation reflects expectations for big growth, in this case coming from two main drivers: continued sales of its Covid-19 vaccine and future windfalls from new vaccines using mRNA tech

There’s no real precedent in the drug industry for the rapid rise of Moderna on the back of its highly effective Covid-19 vaccine. The company’s market value soared from $6bn to a peak of almost $200bn in 19 months, exceeding century-old Big Pharma stalwarts. In July, it entered the S&P 500 Index.

The necessity of this process increases as the valuation advances. Consider: Tesla aims to grow vehicle sales by 50% a year on average “over a multiyear horizon.” Assume it does and also achieves a consistent net margin of 10% on vehicles costing $50,000 apiece. By 2026, Tesla would sell almost one in two of all battery electric vehicles worldwide and have expanded its automotive revenue elevenfold.

How about Moderna? Its valuation also reflects expectations for big growth, in this case coming from two main drivers: continued sales of its Covid-19 vaccine and future windfalls from new vaccines and treatments in development that use the same messenger RNA technology. True, the success of its Covid-19 vaccine does bode well for other mRNA medicines. At today’s valuation, though, investors seem to believe Moderna will “generate products rapidly, with lower risk, higher probability of success, and potentially greater efficacy than older technologies,” according to Jefferies analyst Michael Yee. That’s a Tesla-like leap to make from the success, however impressive, of one unique pandemic vaccine.

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