“Interest rates have increased rapidly over the past six months, and that pace is expected to continue. … Our view is that policy rates in these major economies will continue to rise into March 2023,” Vanguard’s European chief economist wrote in a note.
The inflation fight by central banks isn’t even close to over yet, according to Jumana Saleheen, Vanguard’s European chief economist.
Expectations rose significantly in October in terms of where the Federal Reserve’s policy rate was headed, with it recently pegged as likely to top 5% in 2023 from its current 3%-3.25% target range, based on one-month forward swaps rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate TMUBMUSD10Y, 4.015% pushed toward 4% on Monday, near its highest level since 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Its climb in each of the past 11 weeks has weighed on U.S. stocks and made it increasingly more expensive for consumers to major corporations to borrow.
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