How green bottlenecks threaten the clean energy business

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How green bottlenecks threaten the clean energy business
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Green bottlenecks threaten the booming clean-energy business. Our cover this week looks at how governments can catalyse the necessary surge in private investment

economy wakes back up, shortages and price spikes are affecting everything from the supply of Taiwanese chips to the cost of a French breakfast., one kind of bottleneck deserves special attention: the supply-side problems, such as scarce metals and land constraints, that threaten to slow the green-energy boom.

This sudden shift in how resources are allocated is causing stresses and strains as demand surges for raw materials and a scramble occurs for the few projects with regulatory approval. We calculate that the price of a basket of five minerals used in electric cars and power grids has soared by 139% in the past year. Timber mafias are roaming Ecuadorean forests to find balsa wood used in wind-turbine blades.

The figures for the coming decade are mind-concentrating. To stay on track for net zero, by 2030 annual production of electric vehicles needs to be ten times higher than it was last year and the number of roadside charging stations 31 times bigger. The installed base of renewable-power generation needs to rise three-fold. Global mining firms may have to raise the annual production of critical minerals by 500%. Perhaps 2% of America’s land will have to be blanketed in turbines and solar panels.

The main reason for the investment shortfall is that it takes too long to get projects approved and their expected risk and returns are still too opaque. Governments are making things worse by using climate policy as a vehicle for other political objectives. The European Union aspires to strategic autonomy in batteries and its green agenda directs a chunk of its budget to deprived areas. China is considering domestic price caps on commodities in its next five-year plan.

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