How Gavin Newsom could lose the California recall to a Republican with half as many votes

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How Gavin Newsom could lose the California recall to a Republican with half as many votes
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A majority of Californians approve of his performance in office, and Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide. Yet on Sept. 14, California Gov. Gavin Newsom could still lose his job to a Republican — even if that Republican earns half as many votes

Yet on Sept. 14 Newsom could still lose his job to a Republican — even if that Republican earns half as many votes as he does. The bizarre possibility of such a seemingly undemocratic upset has politicos across America paying closer attention to this year’s California recall effort than to any since 2003 — aka, the one that gave the world Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.The answer is, well, complicated. Every California governor since Ronald Reagan in the 1960s has inspired quixotic recall petitions.

Attendees at a rally to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom at the Santa Clarita Activities Center on Aug. 15 in Santa Clarita, Calif. . According to their tracker, more Californians currently want to “keep” Newsom in office than “remove” him. But with “keep” averaging 48.8 percent and “remove” averaging 47.6 percent, that’s not enough. If those results hold on Election Day — and that’s a big if, but more on that later — then Newsom would get the boot.

That someone, it turns out, is Republican Larry Elder, a Black conservative radio host who was raised in South Central L.A. In 2003, then-Gov. Gray Davis tried to delay the election and secure a spot on the second ballot question alongside his potential replacements; the court rejected Davis’s challenge, but his lieutenant governor, Cruz Bustamante, did appear on the ballot as a Democratic backup option.

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