'When G-7 leaders gather in Hiroshima, Japan, this week, let's watch to see how far French President Emmanuel Macron goes to keep China happy. Beijing is unhappy about this summit, after all.' -TomRtweets
Beijing is unhappy about this summit, after all. Xi Jinping's government knows that the United States and Japan seek to use the summit to align nations more closely against China's coercion and pursuit of high-tech goods.This is a particularly important concern for Japan, which has watched with alarm as China increases naval patrols around its main islands. Beijing's worries are also growing regarding China's threats to Taiwan and its escalating aggression in the South China Sea.
For Macron, however, the priority won't be supporting the G-7 and European Union in"de-risking" their engagement with China. Rather, he'll want to balance saying just enough to keep his G-7 allies happy with retaining Beijing's favor. Macron's recent visit to China made clear that his policy toward Beijing now exists through the absolutely dominant prism of trade. But Macron is no fool. He knows that Beijing places great value on his ability to restrain more hawkish EU-G-7 policies toward China. He also knows that China places a premium on his public support for its interests. Macron will thus be nervous about this summit releasing communiques or actions that might upset his patron in Beijing.
In turn, we should expect to see Macron blocking more explicit G-7 communiques on matters like Taiwan. I suspect we'll also see Macron making comments during the summit that emphasize the need to cooperate with China and avoid escalation over sensitive matters. This will be read-between-the-lines messaging to Xi that he has his back.Indeed, Macron is already laying the groundwork for his Hiroshima narrative.
The question, then, is whether Macron's other G-7 partners will call him out if he starts undermining the summit by firing off cooing statements to Beijing.
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