The lens through which for Trump sees the world is narrow and focused tightly on whether a relationship directly benefits America. That will set up some difficult choices for everyone.
there was a lot of discussion of a post-globalisation world. Once he’s back in the White House, we might get a clearer idea of what that world looks like.
Post-globalisation, she says, means balanced trade and a less mercantilist world, although the path towards that outcome won’t be smooth or straightforward.Interestingly, she doesn’t think the return of Trump will create an isolationist America, characterising his policies as an “America First” doctrine that will shift from the country’s post-war embrace of multilateralism and globalisation to transactionalism and bilateralism.
China may be able to blunt some of the impact of Trump’s tariffs by diverting some of its exports through other economies within its spheres of influence but ultimately it may have to do what it has been very reluctant to do and shift its priorities from exports to boosting domestic consumption. It can’t, however, align its trade too closely with China without risking being overwhelmed by a deluge of exports. It will have to somehow position itself between the two great economic and geopolitical powers, which is a vulnerable place to be.The post-globalisation environment appears likely to be, broadly, a multipolar world, or a tripolar world, with Western Europe the weakest of those poles within what could be an even more volatile geopolitical environment.
If the global flows of goods are disrupted by very aggressive US trade policies and the expected retaliation from its trade partners, global capital flows will also be affected.
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