How Covid-19 migration, housing trends will remake the suburbs
Millennials, the biggest homebuying generation, were starting to decamp urban apartments for suburban homes in the years leading up to the pandemic, seeking space, affordability and desirable school districts. Companies were leaving pricey Northeastern and California cities for tax-favorable cities in states like Texas, Florida and the Carolinas, with their workers following suit.
A combined 27,914 tax filers who moved out of Harris County, Texas, relocated to Fort Bend and Montgomery counties in 2019 and 2020 — the former a western suburb of Houston, the other north of Houston. Going back to Music City, the top 10 counties where most households relocated out of Davidson were also in Tennessee. All but one were in the greater Nashville region.
"Between the pandemic and work-from-home phenomenon, it really accelerated the activity in the outlying counties," she continued.What's being observed in a city like Charlotte may prompt concern a doughnut effect is starting to take place, a phenomenon of city centers being hollowed out as migration and housing demand shift to suburban counties.
A study he recently conducted for ULI found while growing regions still offer a large supply of attainable housing, many haven't demonstrated they can produce enough housing of the right type in the right locations — what Spotts called the dimensions of supply — to keep from following the same trajectory of established, higher-cost markets.
And because growth in the suburbs means growth in multiple, separate jurisdictions, a patchwork of different rules, regulations and taxes in a single MSA is not uncommon. Managing the growth of that broader region then becomes a bigger challenge. "That being said, we have seen that spread between urban and suburban prices narrow as so many people move towards the suburbs," Ratiu said.
Take Prince George's County, Maryland — a suburb of Washington, D.C. — which has seen its home values grow 118.8% between Dec. 31, 2020, and July 31, 2022, from $352,046 to $418,288, according to Zillow data. The District of Columbia's home values have grown 7.3% in the same time period, from $659,316 to $707,720.
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