Some forecasters anticipate a painful worldwide recession followed by a lackluster recovery. Others maintain that the U.S. will achieve price stability without suffering a downturn. EricLevitz writes on the reasoning behind their disparate views
Therefore, until the green transition reaches its mature stage, the global energy system may grow more vulnerable to shortages and shocks while the resource demands of the green buildout may put upward pressure on the prices of various commodities and forms of labor.
In BlackRock’s account, if the Fed is truly committed to bringing inflation back down to 2 percent, it will need to engineer nothing less than a deep recession, since the U.S. economy’s productive capacity has fallen far off of its 2019 trend line.the “politics of recession” will kick in and the central bank will be forced to ease up on rates.
The pessimists’ case is therefore as much about the medium term as it is about the immediate one. The problem is less that next year will be rough economically than it is that the ensuing years will be disappointing — at least relative to the economy we enjoyed back in 2019.To a degree, the case for economic optimism inverts the logic of BlackRock’s counsel of despair.
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